Better freak weather predictions promised

Weather experts are hoping that a new 'supercomputer' will help them to predict the sort of freak weather which has caused misery to householders and businesses across the UK in recent years.

Researchers expect the giant 'Earth Simulator' supercomputer to provide the first reliable long-term predictions of major storms, heatwaves and coldsnaps.

As a result, they believe countries will be better prepared for the extreme effects of global warming.

For Britain, it could mean weather such as the heavy rain of 2000 is less likely to take the country by surprise. Early results from the new computer, based in Japan, were presented to scientists at a Cambridge University meeting last week.

Professor Julia Slingo, director of the Natural Environment Research Council's NCAS Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, said: "These results are very exciting. They show that, for the first time, our climate models can be run at resolutions capable of capturing severe weather events such as intense depressions, hurricanes and major rainstorms.

"This means that we potentially have the capability to predict whether storms, like Hurricane Isabel, will be on the increase in future."

She added: "Importantly for the UK, we will be able to predict with more confidence increases in damaging storms and extremes in temperature, and what their regional impacts will be. They will help us to priorities our investment in devising strategies to adapt to climate change, for example the specification of railway lines to deal with the extreme heat experienced this summer, or storm drains to cope with extreme rainfall, such as we experienced in the Autumn of 2000."

Computing power
Opened in March 2002, the Earth Simulator is dedicated to tracking climate and weather. It takes up as much space as four tennis courts and is 40 times faster than any other machine in operation in the world.

Huge amounts of computing power are needed to estimate the likely long term impacts of climate change. A single program might be written by hundreds of specialist experts and run for months. Even so, the best supercomputers to date have only been able to predict far off weather trends in regions no smaller than 250 square kilometres. The Earth Simulator takes this resolution down to 10 square kilometres - small enough to encompass individual storm systems.

Dr Dave Griggs, director of the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Bracknell, Berkshire, said: "Because of the high resolution the predictions will be more local. For instance, you will be able to forecast more flooding in northern Europe and more droughts in southern Europe.''

He said Britain, which has some of the leading climate scientists in the world, had been granted access to the computer as part of a joint project between the two countries. However, because even the Earth Simulator can take a long time to run climate models, the practical benefits may not be seen for another year.

Prepared for foods
Meanwhile, the Environment Agency and the UK's flood defence committees say they are getting ready for the winter.

In Kent, for example, the Environment Agency confirmed it had increased capacity of its flood warning systems to reduce the time it takes to warn the 26,000 registered recipients of its flood warning service.

Andrew Pearce, Environment Agency flood defence manager in the area, said: "The Agency has worked closely with communities in vulnerable locations to improve the flood warning service, enhance maintenance and construct new defences."

Kent Local Flood Defence Committee (KLFDC) chairman Colin Tandy, added: "Much has been done and is planned in response to river flooding that inundated parts of the committee's area in recent years. We are far from complacent and have no doubt what the rivers of Kent are capable of.

"The Committee is confident that all appropriate steps have been taken to limit the impact if extreme conditions occur this autumn and winter."

Max Herd